Agricultural Land Use and the Transformation of Planet Earth: Investigating the Effects of Land Use Practices on the Ecological, Biogeochemical, and Hydrological Systems of the Planet

Start Date:

01/01/2004

End Date:

01/01/2007

Project Call:

Land-Cover Land-Use Change

Science Theme:

Detection and Monitoring of LCLUC

Carbon and Biogeochemical Cycle Impacts

Water and Energy Cycle Impacts

Climate Variability and Change

Regional Initiative:

GOFC-GOLD Regional Networks

Region:

Global

Team members:

Person Name	Person role on project	Affiliation
Jonathan Foley	Principal Investigator	University of Wisconsin, Madison, Madison, United States

Abstract:

Derive probability distributions of tropical deforestation rates for the 1980s and 1990s, by synthesizing the data and uncertainties inherent in AVHRR, TREES, and FRA data. Use the AVHRR data to identify locations of change, and reconciled estimates for the rates. Develop model of land cover change following deforestation for 7 tropical regions, using case-study information. Drive model using deforestation rates from above. Develop spatially-explicit carbon cycle model of land cover change. Evaluate probability distributions of carbon emissions from tropical land cover change in the 1980s and 1990s, incorporating uncertainties in both the land cover change data, as well as in the parameters of the carbon cycle model.A consensus estimate of tropical deforestation rates for the 1980s and 1990s may not be possible --instead derive probability distributions. Historical land cover change influences present-day carbon fluxes. It is important to go back at least 20 years in the Amazon Basin (not tested yet for other regions).

Project Documents

Year	Authors	Type	Title
2007	Jonathan Foley	NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation	Planet Against the Grain
2005	Jonathan Foley Navin Ramankutty	Significant Results	Estimating Carbon Emissions from Historical Changes in Global Agricultural Land (Significant Results)
2005	Jonathan Foley Ruth DeFries Richard Houghton Navin Ramankutty Holly Gibbs	NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation	Estimating Carbon Emissions from Historical Changes in Global Agricultural Land
2005	Jonathan Foley Michael Coe Navin Ramankutty Chris Kucharik Carol Barford	NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation	Agricultural Land Use and the Transformation of Planet Earth: Investigating the Effects of Land Use Practices on the Ecological, Biogeochemical, and Hydrological Systems of the Planet