Ecological Monitoring in Semi-Arid Central and West Asia: Drivers and Trajectories

The carbon cycle has been substantially altered by human activities and this alteration is continuing globally. Projecting the future behavior of the carbon cycle, and analysis of carbon management options requires a coupled analysis of the carbon-cycle and the socio-economic forces driving land-use changes. This project will use remote sensing data products to improve the representation of the carbon-cycle within the ObjECTS-MiniCAM framework (see center box). This will enable global and regional analysis of carbon dynamics, carbon sequestration potential, and coupled dynamics of the carbon-cycle and socioeconomic systems. Both parametric uncertainty and uncertainty due to different model spatial definitions will be quantified. This project will: • allow flexible analysis of different regions and sub-regions as needed • provide a capacity for analysis of regional carbon stocks under different technological, socioeconomic, and policy regimes • provide a consistent set of input data that can be easily updated • produce improved long-term emissions projections in terms of spatial and temporal detail, consistency with remote sensing data, and integration with socioeconomic drivers and • allow analysis of the interactions between of carbon-cycle uncertainties and climate policy choices. Below is a projection of global land use changes over the next century. This project will enable estimates, for example, of North American carbon stocks under different policy regimes consistent with these land-use changes.