Multiscale Synthesis of Land Cover and Land Use, Climatic and Societal Changes in Drylands of Central Asia

This proposal focuses on multiscale synthesis analyses of land cover and land use changes and major climatic, environmental and socioeconomic changes that have been occurring since the 1950s in drylands of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). The proposed research leverages on past and ongoing work conducted by the team as part of the NEESPI and several other national/international projects. Multiple projects involving the team members were/are being funded by NASA LCLUC. The general science question driving the proposed synthesis is “How have human drivers, combined with climate variability and change, changed the landscapes of the region over the past ~50 years, especially in the post-Soviet period since the 1991? The main goal of the proposed project is to synthesize (map, document and understand) changes in land cover and land use, to determine trajectories of change and the role of human and natural drivers, and to assess the consequences to food and water security in the region. Our specific objectives include (1) synthesis of the scope of changes in LCLU and related institutional, socio-economic, and climatic factors, (2) analyses of LCLU change trajectories and the relationship with major human and natural drivers, and (3) assessment of consequences of land use changes on food and water security in the context of socioeconomic transformations. The synthesis will include wall-to-wall mapping and documenting changes in land and vegetation attributes across the spatiotemporal scales using satellite products from MODIS, AVHRR and Landsat. The focus is to characterize and understand how terrestrial ecosystems are changing through human activities and in response to climate change, with an emphasis on managed ecosystems related to agricultural activities and water use in Central Asia. The trajectories of change and emerging patterns will be documented and analyzed along with the major socioeconomic and hydro-climatic drivers of change. An exploratory economic modeling and integrated assessment analyses will be performed to aid in process-level understanding. In achieving its objectives, the project will provide the-state-of-art synthesis knowledge, improved understanding and new modeling tools to empower to empower stakeholders and decision-makers.