The Present and Future Effects of Ground Fires on Forest Carbon Stocks, Metabolism, Hydrology, and Economic Value in Amazonia and the Cerrado

We used the first portion of our LBA-Ecology award to plan for future LBA research activities in Brazil, and to accelerate our development of an Amazon-wide model to predict forest susceptibility to fire. The need for this model, which has also been supported by a NASA-TECO award since February, 1997, was highlighted late in 1997 and early in 1998 by the widespread (and highly publicized) burning of tropical forests in Amazonia, Indonesia, and Mexico, provoked by the most severe El Nińo episode of the century. We have now completed and published an initial version of this model, which we call “RisQue” (from the Portuguese, Risco de Queimadas). The resulting map (attached) of forest fire susceptibility was used by the Brazilian environmental agency, IBAMA, as the basis for its 1998 field campaigns to reduce the occurrence of accidental fire in Amazonia. Moreover, our model predictions of a very high Amazonian forest fire risk in 1998 were the incentive behind the establishment of a large Brazilian government program called PROARCO, funded by the World Bank, and designed to reduce the occurrence of accidental forest fires.